Italy’s 2024 intelligence report highlights the growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Africa, where shifting alliances and emerging threats challenge national security. With key concerns in maritime security, energy stability, and crisis management, Rome is compelled to adopt an integrated risk assessment approach to safeguard its strategic interests amid escalating regional instability
Geopolitical uncertainty. Italy’s annual 2024 intelligence report highlights a rising tide of geopolitical uncertainty.
- Regional dynamics across the Mediterranean and Africa are reshaping Rome’s national security priorities as economic, cultural, and political factors become increasingly interlinked.
- As global and regional conflicts reconfigure alliances and power structures, Italy must navigate emerging threats while safeguarding its strategic interests—especially in energy security and geopolitical stability.
Italy’s strategic hub. The report underscores the Mediterranean’s critical importance to Italy’s security.
- Key concerns include maritime security, the integrity of energy supply chains, and crisis management.
- North Africa remains a focal point, with Italy strengthening ties with Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia despite ongoing instability, notably in Algeria, where economic turmoil and Sahelian unrest persist.
- Meanwhile, Libya and Sudan emerge as key battlegrounds where Russia’s expanding influence complicates an already fragile security landscape.
Middle East flashpoints. Instability in the Middle East also poses a significant threat to Italy.
- The report notes that Sunni Gulf monarchies continue to work to stabilise the region, protect their major investments, and diversify their economies.
- Strategic maritime chokepoints like the Suez Canal, Bab el Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz remain vital for Italy’s trade flows.
- Recent events, such as Iran’s internal repression and the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, have further stirred regional debates with potential ripple effects.
A nexus of global crises. The report highlights Africa as a critical arena for global crises.
- Jihadist expansion in the Sahel, coupled with the destabilising influence of military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—often backed by Russia—poses direct security risks.
- In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions continue to trigger tensions with Somalia, while conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo further destabilises the Great Lakes region.
The big picture. The shifting dynamics across these regions are impacting Italy at an accelerated pace.
- Intelligence services are tasked with identifying risks and deciphering the complex interconnections between events to support national security and strategic interests.
- As crises amplify and new threats emerge, Italy’s integrated approach to risk assessment becomes essential for maintaining stability in an ever-evolving global landscape.
