Decoding the news. The “Eastern Sentry” mission was designed to strengthen deterrence on the eastern front, based in Poland, after Russian drone incursions in recent weeks required allied defensive action (including Italian AWACS that helped track Russian aircraft later shot down by allies).
- Italy initially appeared ready to participate, but a political shift led to a sudden reversal.
- The halt risks undermining perceptions of Italy’s reliability, especially on the eve of sensitive moments in NATO-Russia relations.
Behind the scenes. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto initially favoured participation and was ready to respond to NATO’s request. But on Tuesday, he explained: “We are already among NATO’s top contributors. We will provide availability to extend the deployment of the Samp/T (an air-defense missile system [editor’s note]) already stationed on the Eastern front and to extend the deployment of the Caew radar aircraft already operating in the area.”
- According to Italian press reports, Rome shifted under pressure from Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who opposed direct exposure in Poland – and is advocacing for a softer line to reopen dialogue with Russia.
- Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani preferred to avoid a clash with their coalition partner, the leader of the League, the third-largest party in government.
What Rome offers. Italy nonetheless confirms its readiness to strengthen the Alliance with other assets, beyond those already deployed. Italy is already a key contributor to NATO’s eastern reinforcement.
- There are 740 army troops in Bulgaria and 250 in Hungary (under the Enhanced Vigilance Activity). Another 250 are in Latvia (mission “Baltic Guardian”).
- The centrepiece of this commitment is the mission in Estonia, at the Amari air base near Tallinn, where Italy deploys four F-35s plus CEAW radar aircraft and a Samp/T battery.
- On September 1, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the hangars serving as headquarters for the Italian mission, underscoring the importance of this presence.
The Amari mission is fully integrated with the parallel one in Lithuania and with the Polish air forces, as demonstrated during the Russian drone incursion two weeks ago.
- These Italian assets could also be leveraged within the Eastern Sentry framework, avoiding the launch of a new mission that Salvini and the League oppose.
What we’re watching. Did internal pressures, tied to the League’s position and the issue of relations with Russia, drive the choice?
- The compromise aims to avoid weakening Italy’s contribution on the Eastern Flank while sidestepping a direct deployment in Poland.
- The move comes as Ursula von der Leyen and other European leaders stress the importance of a cohesive Alliance effort.
- The Military Committee Conference (CHoDs) will occur in Riga, Latvia, from September 26 to 27. It will gather the Chiefs of Defence of allied nations.
