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Italy’s strategic comeback, explained by Zeneli

An analysis by Valbona Zeneli, advisory board member of Decode39, published on The National Interest, argues that Italy has quietly but decisively re-emerged as a relevant geopolitical actor in a fragmented international system.

Italy’s renewed international standing is not accidental. According to Zeneli, it rests on a combination of political stability, clear geopolitical choices, and a growing ability to link foreign policy, security, and economic strategy.

Key Takeaways:

  • Italy has filled strategic gaps in Europe:
    • In a context marked by uncertainty in several major European capitals, Rome has enhanced its visibility and credibility by consistently acting on Ukraine, NATO commitments, and transatlantic alignment.
  • Foreign policy is now tightly linked to strategic connectivity:
    • Italy’s support for initiatives such as IMEC and its recalibration of ties with China reflect a broader effort to reduce dependencies while positioning the country as a hub between Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Indo-Pacific.
  • Economic credibility underpins geopolitical ambition.:
    • Lower sovereign risk, record exports, rising foreign investment, and strong US-Italy economic ties provide the material foundation for a more assertive and reliable Italian role on the global stage.

A symbolic quote: “2025 has been tough for all of us, but don’t worry — next year will be much worse,” Meloni said yesterday, speaking with Palazzo Chigi’s team ahead of the Christmas holidays.

Why it matters: Zeneli’s analysis fits into a broader intellectual effort to interpret Italy’s evolving role in global affairs. She is also the author of [Over]Views, a regular Decode39 column that brings together international experts to examine key foreign policy and geopolitical issues affecting Italy — from transatlantic relations to the Mediterranean and the Indo-Pacific.

The bottom line: Italy’s current trajectory suggests a shift from reactive diplomacy to a more integrated strategic posture — one that could shape European and transatlantic debates if sustained over time.

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