According to the 2026 Annual Report of the Italian intelligence community, the Russian Federation represents the primary threat to the European continent in the current year. Italian intelligence portrays Moscow as pursuing a strategy characterized by pronounced “below-threshold” aggression and a long-term strategic vision that identifies Europe as its main geopolitical antagonist. Below is a concise overview of the threats posed by Russia across several strategic domains.
Conflict Strategy and Hybrid Threats. Moscow is pursuing a multi-vector hybrid strategy aimed at destabilizing Western cohesion and undermining support for Kyiv.
- Sabotage and kinetic actions: European critical infrastructure has experienced a sharp increase in attacks — more than fivefold between 2023 and 2025. These incidents include reckless acts such as the use of incendiary parcels and railway sabotage, both carrying potential risks for civilian casualties.
- Use of proxies: Following the reduction of its intelligence personnel in Europe, the Kremlin increasingly relies on proxy actors, often ordinary criminals recruited online, allowing Moscow to maintain a degree of plausible deniability.
- Cognitive warfare and disinformation: Russia leverages a vast media ecosystem and generative AI to disseminate narratives designed to discredit Western leadership and undermine trust in EU and NATO institutions. In Italy, these activities are sometimes amplified by pro-Russian circles and individual bloggers reportedly funded by Moscow.
Economic Warfare and Energy Resources. Russia represents one of the most prominent cases of sustained economic warfare, having developed alternative structures to mitigate the impact of sanctions.
- The “shadow fleet”: Moscow is believed to operate between 1,100 and 1,400 vessels, mainly aging oil tankers, to circumvent sanctions and sustain exports of crude oil, LNG, and agricultural commodities. These operations generate critical financial flows supporting the Russian war effort.
- Energy and food leverage: The Kremlin continues to employ energy supplies and agricultural exports as geopolitical pressure tools.
Cyber Threats. Cyber capabilities remain central to Russia’s strategy for espionage and digital disruption.
- Targets in Italy: In 2025, Russian cyber activities primarily focused on espionage against Italy’s central public administration and attempts to render targeted systems unusable.
- Hacktivist activity: Pro-Russian groups such as NoName075(16) have increased their operations, conducting DDoS attacks and website defacements against national targets for demonstrative and propaganda purposes.
Geopolitical Projection and Spheres of Influence. Moscow continues to view the post-Soviet space as a zone of “limited sovereignty” under its strategic control.
- Moldova and Georgia: In Moldova, Russia exploits political polarization and energy pressure to influence electoral processes. In Georgia, it maintains occupation of roughly 20% of the national territory while exerting strong media and economic influence.
- Balkans and the Arctic: In the Balkans, Russia fuels latent ethnic tensions to slow European integration. In the Arctic, Moscow seeks control over emerging maritime routes made accessible by climate change.
- Africa and the Middle East: Russia has replaced Western partners in several Sahel countries — including through the Afrika Corps — contributing to instability that in turn fuels migration flows and jihadist activity.
Russia–NATO Scenarios Toward 2030. Using generative AI modeling, Italian intelligence has also outlined three potential scenarios for conventional confrontation between Russia and NATO:
- Incursions in the Suwalki Corridor aimed at isolating the Baltic states.
- Security incidents along the borders with Poland and Lithuania.
- Escalating rhetorical and operational tensions linked to drone incursions and violations of national airspace.
The bottom line: Overall, the report presents Russia as the most immediate and multifaceted security challenge facing Europe — combining hybrid warfare, economic leverage, cyber operations, and geopolitical expansion into a long-term strategy designed to weaken Western unity.
