Looking for a new foothold. Today, during a press conference in Rome to present the annual 2024 intelligence report, Giovanni Caravelli, Director of Italy’s foreign intelligence agency (AISE), warned that Russia is actively seeking a new strategic foothold in the Mediterranean.
- This shift comes as Moscow struggles to maintain control over its naval base in Tartus, Syria.
- Russia’s repositioning signals a significant shift in its geopolitical strategy, with a growing focus on North Africa and the Sahel-Saharan region.
- This development is particularly concerning for Italy, as Moscow’s increasingly hostile actions pose a direct challenge in key strategic areas: the Mediterranean, the Indo-Mediterranean, and Africa.
New strategic targets. Reports indicate that Russia is now eyeing North African coastal areas as potential alternatives to Tartus, which may no longer be sustainable in its current form.
- Leveraging its presence in Syria, the Kremlin is strategically deploying resources across Africa, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel-Saharan belt, to maintain its global influence.
The intelligence perspective. According to the annual report, Russia is one of the global power centres committed to creating an inclusive multipolar system.
- Yet, its pursuit of “peace” is paradoxically carried out through an invasion war to prevent autonomous political choices in neighbouring states.
- “The war in Ukraine has curtailed Russia’s international projection, forcing the Kremlin to either offer or accept concessions in strategic areas,” the report explains.
- This includes potential losses of influence in Syria and the Arctic, where Moscow has already permitted some Chinese incursions.
A common concern. Caravelli stressed that Russia’s recalibrated strategy is a serious concern for Italy and its allied intelligence services.
- Western agencies are collaborating to devise strategies to curb Moscow’s growing influence and secure critical strategic regions.
- Decode39 has previously reported on Putin’s ambitions in Africa, highlighting how Moscow is deepening its ties with key African nations to challenge Western influence—an effort that reflects its broader geopolitical recalibration amid setbacks in Ukraine and Syria.
