Long-term warning. On Wednesday, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto warned that even a potential peace agreement in Ukraine will not halt Russia’s broader strategic ambitions.
- According to Crosetto, Moscow’s aggressive and destabilising posture will persist, underscoring the urgent need for Europe to rethink its security architecture.
- Crosetto said in an interview with Il Foglio that to counter this enduring threat, Europe must ramp up defence investments, strengthen NATO’s role, and reinforce its strategic alignment with the United States.
- “Russia will remain in a war footing even after a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, and failing to understand that in the new world, the Russian threat will be a constant means creating conditions for an unsustainable peace,” he stated Foglio.
EU acceleration and transatlantic ties. Crosetto is pushing for a more assertive European defence policy.
- He urged the EU to accelerate its efforts to invest in defence and develop a standardised military capacity while clarifying that strategic autonomy should not equate to a break from US support.
- “Giving up American protection and its nuclear deterrence is simply impossible,” he emphasised, highlighting the indispensability of a shared transatlantic approach.
Why it’s coordinated. Crosetto uses that alignment to make a broader point about NATO.
- He says the Atlantic Alliance is central to Italy’s and Europe’s security and the only reliable guarantee for Ukraine’s future security architecture.
- This position is fully aligned with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
- On Tuesday, during a speech to the Italian Senate, she championed NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine.
- It underscores the importance of transatlantic coordination in shaping Europe’s response to Russia.
Expert analysis. According to Nicu Popescu, ECFR’s Distinguished Policy Fellow, many in Europe still assume Russia isn’t a direct military threat, but this view is dangerously narrow.
- “The real threat is not just military and has the potential to unravel the institutional fabric that has kept Europe prosperous, secure and integrated,” he said in remarks shared with Decode39.
- “The EU is to be a serious military power that can stand on its feet and deter the slightest temptation to threaten it.”
- “If Russia were to launch a provocation, the EU’s response would be critical.”
- He warned that even minimal hesitation or lack of unity could trigger consequences far beyond the battlefield.
The road ahead. As the war grinds, Europe’s real test will transform declarations into decisive actions—boosting defence spending, building interoperable European forces, and reinforcing NATO’s flanks.
- The challenge lies in preparing for future crises and proving that Europe’s pillar within NATO can remain robust even when conflict’s immediacy subsides.
