Decoding the news. Med-Or’s special report, “South Africa at the G20 (and under Trump)”, highlights how the country’s strained ties with Washington — worsened by trade tariffs and its stance on Gaza—push it closer to BRICS and Europe. For the EU and Italy, this could be a strategic opening.
What they’re saying. Umberto Tavolato, Med-Or’s director of international relations and co-author of the report, told Decode39:
- “Globally, the actors most affected by Trump’s return are Europe and South Africa.
- “The entire African continent—particularly South Africa—is being hit by U.S. trade tariffs”.
- “The risk is leaving Africa to China, which would contradict the U.S. agenda pursued in the region over the past decade, even under Trump’s first term.”
EU must step up. “Europe must mitigate the fallout of a controversial U.S. policy in Africa by supporting South Africa—the continent’s most advanced economy and top trading partner—through beneficial trade agreements,” said Med-Or’s expert.
- “This would strengthen Europe’s position and give it a more reliable partner in the Global South to promote agendas like climate action and energy transition and foster constructive dialogue on global institutional reform.”
Italy’s opportunity: The Mattei Plan in action. Beyond geopolitics, South Africa is also a strategic bilateral partner for Italy.
- “South Africa can serve as a springboard for triangular cooperation on energy transition and critical minerals projects across Southern Africa—particularly in countries with less developed financial systems,” Tavolato underlined.
The recipe. “Encourage public-private partnerships to build integrated industrial supply chains with Europe—from regional power grid expansion to cross-border transport, facilitating trade in a mineral-rich region, and boosting pharmaceutical capacity for local vaccine production.”
What we’re watching. With shifting alliances and rising global uncertainty, Italy and Europe have a narrow window to deepen ties with South Africa — not just to secure strategic interests, but to build a credible presence across Africa.
- Other players are already moving fast: a series of high-level meetings between Saudi Arabia and South Africa in the past year have resulted in multi-billion-dollar agreements—and more deals are reportedly on the way.
(Photo: g20.org)
