Decoding the news. Yesterday, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto presented the aid package (the 11th) to the parliamentary intelligence committee (COPASIR) after a direct appeal from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
- Both Minister Crosetto and Meloni remain firmly aligned on Ukraine. Both have signalled that while they support diplomatic efforts, such as those initiated by the Trump administration, Vladimir Putin’s refusal to negotiate in good faith blocks the road to peace.
- “Moscow asks for too much,” said U.S. Vice President JD Vance, a view echoed by Crosetto, who stressed that Russia offers no credible security guarantees.
Meloni’s pledge. Meanwhile, speaking yesterday in a Senate Q&A session, Meloni announced that Italy will reach NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target in 2025. She framed the move as a matter of national sovereignty and strategic credibility:
- “Freedom has a price. If someone else pays for your security, you’re not fully in control of your destiny,” she said.
- Italy is presenting itself credibly despite a very complex economic and financial context. We do not just claim this credibility, but are recognised by markets, investors, and savers.”
- She pointed to Italy’s recovering financial indicators, including renewed demand for government bonds and Milan’s stock market surpassing pre-2008 crisis levels.
Between the lines. The government’s rhetoric suggests a broader strategic pivot: repositioning Italy as a reliable NATO partner amid rising geopolitical tensions.
- The military aid to Ukraine is just part of a broader defence and economic realignment.
What we’re watching. While the details of the eleventh aid package remain classified, more satellite intelligence could be shared with Kyiv, and the defence spending hike will likely fuel further military modernisation.
- The package could include 400 M113 tracked vehicles, munitions, and the SAMP/T air defence system.
- Italy is solidifying its role as a serious NATO player—not only by boosting military aid to Ukraine but also by committing to structural increases in defence investment.
