What happened: On June 18, EU leaders produced conclusions on Ukraine and on European defence and security. The document addressed support for Ukraine’s EU path, further sanctions against Russia, including measures targeting the shadow tanker fleet, and the acceleration of defence investment across Europe. Several elements in the text broadly align with priorities promoted by Giorgia Meloni’s government, although the most politically sensitive budget questions remain unresolved.
The big picture: Meloni gains ground on Ukraine. One of the clearest points of alignment appears in the language on Ukraine’s EU accession. The conclusions state that enlargement should remain “in line with the merit-based approach”. This matters for Italy because Rome has consistently argued that Ukraine’s path toward the EU should not come at the expense of other candidate countries, including Moldova and the Western Balkans.
- For Meloni, this formulation helps preserve Italy’s credibility with countries such as Albania and Montenegro, which have been working for years to meet EU standards. A fast-track route for Ukraine could have created political tensions with those partners. Instead, the Council’s language allows Italy to continue supporting Kyiv while also defending the enlargement prospects of the Western Balkans, an area where Rome wants to maintain political influence.
- The final document also reaffirms the EU’s commitment “to work closely with the Western Balkans and support their reform efforts on their paths towards EU membership”. This is a useful result for Italy, even if it does not by itself change the pace of the enlargement process.
Zoom in: defence spending and domestic politics. Another relevant element for the Meloni government is the Council’s emphasis on accelerating European defence spending and strengthening domestic production capabilities. This comes at a delicate moment for Italy. Defence spending remains politically sensitive, especially with elections approaching and with parts of the Italian public sceptical of further military commitments.
- The European framing may help the government present higher defence investment less as a unilateral national choice and more as part of a broader EU effort. That does not remove domestic criticism, but it gives Meloni a stronger political argument: Italy is not acting alone, but within a European strategy shaped by the war in Ukraine and by the need to rebuild defence capacity.
- The conclusions also refer to the Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, instrument. This could matter for Italy because Rome has so far moved cautiously on the related loan facility, partly due to political pressure and partly because the government has sought greater flexibility on other spending priorities. The renewed emphasis on SAFE may help Meloni either justify accepting the available resources or continue using the issue as leverage in negotiations with Brussels.
Between the lines: the shadow fleet and Italy’s maritime role. The Council’s support for a “whole-of-route” approach to countering Russia’s shadow fleet could also have implications for Italy. The Mediterranean is one of the key transit spaces for maritime traffic linked to Russian energy flows, and Italy’s geography gives Rome a natural interest in how this enforcement architecture will be designed.
- If the EU operationalizes this approach, Italy could be asked to play a larger role in monitoring, tracking and coordinating maritime activity. This would likely involve the Navy, the Coast Guard and port authorities, particularly in relation to environmental risks, sanctions enforcement and the safety of maritime routes.
- For Italy, this could bring both costs and opportunities. On one hand, more surveillance and enforcement would require resources and coordination. On the other, it could strengthen Rome’s role in Mediterranean security and give Italy a stronger voice in shaping the EU’s response to Russia’s maritime networks.
- There may also be an Adriatic dimension. Cooperation with Balkan partners on monitoring and maritime security could reinforce Italy’s already important role in the region, especially with countries that depend on Rome for coordination on migration, security and connectivity.
The exception: the EU budget. Despite these areas of alignment, Meloni did not obtain concrete results on the most sensitive financial dossier: the Multiannual Financial Framework. Before the summit, Italy had signalled several priorities, including avoiding a worse net balance for Rome, challenging the rebates enjoyed by some “frugal” countries, and protecting cohesion and agricultural funds.
- Meloni had also worked with a broader group of countries, including Spain and Poland, to resist a reduction of cohesion spending. But the Council’s conclusions on the MFF remained limited. The text contains only a short reference to the issue and leaves the real negotiations to the coming months.
- This means that no concrete agreement was reached on cohesion funds, rebates, Eurobonds or the broader balance of the next EU budget. For Italy, the most important battle has therefore been postponed.
The bottom line: Meloni can leave the European Council with some political arguments in her favour. The language on Ukraine’s EU path, the reaffirmation of the Western Balkans’ accession process, the push on European defence and the focus on the Russian shadow fleet all give Rome space to claim that several Italian priorities were reflected in the final text.
But these are mostly political and strategic gains… The financial concessions that would directly affect Italy’s budget are still missing. The real test for Meloni will come in the next phase of negotiations on the MFF, when symbolic alignment will have to be translated into budgetary results.
