On August 13, an explosion tore through the KNDS Ammo Italy plant in Colleferro, near Rome.
The site — formerly Simmel Difesa — is Italy’s principal producer of medium- and large-calibre ammunition and one of the contractors under European agreements for 155mm shells, a share of which is destined for Kyiv. Three days earlier, a depot belonging to Emco in Bulgaria had also blown up.
Not a simple news. For Massimiliano Di Pasquale, associate researcher at the Gino Germani Institute and director of its Ukraine Observatory, the case “cannot be filed away as a simple news item.” He assesses the probability of Russian involvement as “real,” while cautioning that establishing the facts requires restraint.
Why it matters: Colleferro sits at a chokepoint. A prolonged shutdown would inflict measurable operational damage on Ukraine’s supply chain at a moment when 155mm output is Europe’s hardest bottleneck.
- But Di Pasquale argues the intended payoff would be dual: physical disruption plus an intimidating message to Italian politics and public opinion, distilled into a single idea — that supporting Ukraine is not worth the cost.
Strategic convergence. Di Pasquale endorses Defence Minister Guido Crosetto’s decision to rule nothing in and nothing out for now, calling prudence necessary while investigations continue.
- He notes Crosetto’s November 2025 non-paper on countering hybrid warfare, which identified Italy as the target of a continuous threat, primarily Russian. The convergence is notable: a researcher pressing for urgency and a minister exercising restraint agree on the underlying diagnosis, differing only on what can responsibly be said before evidence lands.
The bigger picture: Plausible deniability, Di Pasquale argues, is the organising principle of Moscow’s modern hybrid campaigns — and sometimes the threshold is deliberately lowered so the message lands.
- Rome and Sofia are both read in Moscow as societies where domestic pressure can amplify an operation’s effects. In Bulgaria, incidents feed President Rumen Radev’s argument that arming Ukraine drags the country toward war; in Italy, they aim to push parties toward halting munitions production for Kyiv.
Political fault lines: Opposition calls to suspend production followed the Colleferro blast almost immediately — precisely the reflex a saboteur would seek.
- Di Pasquale is blunt about the media, citing mainstream outlets that have relayed Russian strategic narratives, including recent denialist claims about Bucha.
What it signals: Attribution may never arrive. The vulnerability already has.
