Geography continues to matter, especially when it becomes an instrument of geopolitical pressure. The Red Sea, through which essential connections between Europe and Asia pass, offers a particularly significant illustration of this dynamic. The shipping crisis, Houthi attacks, and political instability in the Horn of Africa intersect with tensions in the Gulf, turning one of the world’s main economic arteries into an arena of strategic competition.
This is the picture outlined by Umberto Tavolato and Chepkorir Sambu in the new special report by Med-Or Italian Foundation, The Great War in the Red Sea: Conflicts, Maritime Chokepoints and New Strategic Corridors (La grande guerra del Mar Rosso: conflitti, stretti marittimi e nuovi corridoi strategici), presented in Rome on November 11.
The study builds on a research initiative launched by the Foundation in 2024, placing recent developments within a broader perspective encompassing maritime security, regional competition, and the transformation of international economic connections.
Two chokepoints, one interconnected crisis. At the heart of the analysis lies the interdependence between two strategic chokepoints, Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Iranian pressure on the former and the threat posed by the Houthis to the latter call into question the continuity of a network of connections underpinning significant portions of global trade. The consequences extend beyond maritime security, affecting shipping companies’ operational decisions, the reliability of energy supplies, and the resilience of critical connectivity infrastructure.
- The report examines these vulnerabilities through the political dynamics unfolding on both shores of the Red Sea. The war in Sudan, Somalia’s fragmentation, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the conflict in Yemen remain distinct crises, but they are becoming increasingly interconnected. Rivalries among regional powers, combined with the ability of non-state actors to influence territorial control and maritime routes, contribute to extending the consequences of instability beyond national borders.
What is at stake for Italy: trade, energy and digital infrastructure. For Italy, these developments carry particular significance. The Mediterranean risks seeing its commercial centrality progressively redefined if the diversion of shipping traffic around Africa becomes structural. In this regard, the study highlights the case of Gioia Tauro: an increase in transshipment operations does not necessarily translate into greater cargo flows serving Italy’s productive economy. This distinction matters because it suggests that port competitiveness should be assessed in terms of the quality of economic connections, rather than simply the volume of cargo handled.
- Similar considerations apply to energy. With Hormuz under pressure, alternative routes allowing Gulf oil to reach the Red Sea acquire greater strategic value. Yet these infrastructures remain exposed to attacks and regional insecurity. Saudi Arabia’s role, its connections to the Mediterranean through Egypt, and the associated energy infrastructure therefore become essential to understanding how energy flows could be reconfigured.
- There is also a less visible but equally consequential dimension: submarine cables. The Bab el-Mandeb area hosts critical digital connections between Europe and Asia. The vulnerability of this infrastructure, compounded by the difficulties specialized repair vessels face when operating in insecure waters, introduces another element of risk to the continuity of communications. Italy, as a landing point for major submarine cable systems, is directly exposed to these challenges.
Three scenarios that could deepen regional instability. The report identifies three scenarios to monitor, presenting them as potential risks rather than forecasts: renewed escalation around Bab el-Mandeb linked to tensions with Iran; an open conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea; and a further weakening of Somalia, potentially benefiting al-Shabaab.
- These are three different trajectories, united by their potential to further undermine security in a region already affected by multiple overlapping crises.
Beyond maritime security: the strategic choices facing Europe. The study’s recommendations emphasize the need to combine protection of maritime navigation with political stabilization.
- The European Union’s naval operations, EUNAVFOR ASPIDES and EUNAVFOR ATALANTA, represent important instruments, but the security of maritime routes cannot depend exclusively on military presence. Regional cooperation, dialogue among Gulf actors, and investment in new commercial, energy, and digital corridors connecting Africa, Europe, and Asia are equally necessary.
The bottom line: For Rome and Brussels, the central question is how to participate in this transformation. Protecting existing connections and contributing to the development of alternatives are not mutually exclusive strategies.
- Rather, the Red Sea demonstrates how the ability to guarantee reliable connectivity is becoming an essential component of international influence. It also illustrates the extent to which Mediterranean stability now depends on political balances and infrastructure located much farther east.
