“The fact that technology is the underlying theme of the Report means acknowledging that we have entered a phase in which there is almost an equation between technological supremacy and geopolitical supremacy.” For Beniamino Irdi, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, the Italian intelligence community’s 2026 annual report, presented in Rome, marks an important turning point: the centrality of technology signals a new level of strategic awareness.
Decoding Rome: In a conversation with Decode39, Irdi explains that the document shows how Italy’s intelligence system has internalised a structural transformation of the international environment.
- “The revolutionary technological developments we are witnessing, starting of course with artificial intelligence, are characterised above all by their cross-cutting nature,” he observes.
- Innovations such as AI affect all strategic sectors and generate social and political repercussions. As a result, the ability to dominate these technologies will largely determine the outcome of geopolitical competition.
- The report presented to Parliament reflects this awareness. It stresses that technological innovation no longer accompanies change; it now shapes and accelerates it, redefining both how power is exercised and the very nature of threats. This is not merely an economic or industrial matter.
- Technology is increasingly becoming a core component of national security. Digital sovereignty—the autonomous control of data, algorithms, and infrastructures—is identified as a fundamental condition for protecting the country’s economic integrity and security.
The role of AI. Within this framework, the role of artificial intelligence in intelligence activities also emerges clearly. Irdi notes that the report demonstrates how the intelligence community has begun a concrete reflection on AI applications.
- “You can see that an increasingly mature discussion is underway on how artificial intelligence can support intelligence efforts,” he says.
- Potential applications are numerous: from target identification to information analysis through advanced language models, and from large-scale data processing to the detection of weak signals that may anticipate emerging threats.
- This last aspect represents one of the most innovative elements. The use of AI algorithms enables analysts to process vast amounts of data and identify recurring patterns, enabling them to anticipate potential risk scenarios.
- “Through the use of artificial intelligence algorithms, it becomes possible to reconstruct patterns and warning signals even for specific threats,” Irdi explains.
- The report itself includes several threat scenarios developed with the support of artificial intelligence, offering a concrete example of how these technologies can already be integrated into intelligence’s analytical processes.
Zoom out: the forward-looking perspective. Another significant novelty concerns the document’s overall approach. Unlike previous reports, which traditionally focused on activities carried out over the past year, the 2026 report adopts a more explicitly forward-looking perspective.
- This evolution reflects the transformative role of technology. Irdi notes that the document includes predictive assessments and forward-looking reflections on key geopolitical dynamics. “Until now, the report was mainly a record of the activities conducted in the previous year,” he explains.
- “This time there is a clear intention to look ahead.” Among the examples he mentions is the reference to potential scenarios involving Taiwan, an indication of a more anticipatory approach to strategic analysis.
Zoom in: Hybrid threats. Finally, on the issue of hybrid threats, the report represents what Irdi describes as a point of maturation for the Italian intelligence system. These threats are portrayed as multivector phenomena unfolding simultaneously across several domains—political, economic, technological, and informational—while serving a single strategic objective.
- “This report marks the consolidation of the concept of hybrid threats within the Italian intelligence community,” Irdi observes, adding that the topic is addressed with a more methodologically robust framework than in the past.
- Technology also plays a central role in this context. According to Irdi, the relationship between technological innovation and hybrid threats emerges particularly clearly in the report.
- “The role of technology in hybrid threats is linked to the fact that those who originate these threats can operate remotely and under conditions of plausible deniability,” he explains. In the past, cyber operations had already been correctly described as a multiplier of other threat vectors.
- Today, however, the landscape has expanded further. “It is right to extend this concept, because it is no longer only about cyber; it now includes artificial intelligence and the technological factor more broadly.”
The bottom line: In other words, technology is not merely one arena of international competition. It is increasingly the enabling element that makes new forms of strategic pressure possible—from information manipulation and influence operations to attacks against critical infrastructure and digital systems.
- The prominence that the report gives to this issue, therefore, suggests an important recognition: in contemporary competition, national security and technological innovation have become inseparable dimensions.
