ROME — A survey cited by pollster Alessandra Ghisleri in La Stampa on Sept. 7 offers a snapshot of the electorate surrounding the former general Roberto Vannacci and his far-right Futuro Nazionale project — highlighting identity issues, distrust of traditional parties and an appetite for political disruption.
Why it matters: Ghisleri writes that polls currently put pro-Russia Vannacci’s party at roughly 7-8%, but cautions that such figures are likely to disappoint anyone expecting that support to translate automatically into votes.
- The more significant finding is political: Vannacci appears able to attract voters from both the right and the left, as well as people who have not voted before.
- His supporters are strongly motivated by immigration, security and identity, but also by anger at what they see as a political establishment detached from ordinary voters.
- That makes Futuro Nazionale potentially more than a competitor within Italy’s right: its appeal could become a test of how deep anti-system sentiment runs across the electorate.
Zoom in: Who are Vannacci’s voters?. The analysis is based on testimony collected by Only Numbers, the polling and research institute headed by Ghisleri, among people who say they are attracted to Vannacci’s political offer.
- Their motivations range from “protest” to “to try something different” and “to teach the centre-left a lesson,” Ghisleri writes.
- Some respondents previously voted for Fratelli d’Italia or the Lega, but the pool is broader. Others come from the left or had stopped voting altogether.
- That crossover is one of the politically relevant elements of the research. Ghisleri describes a voter who feels “betrayed by those they voted for, not won over by those they have not yet voted for.” Vannacci’s attraction, in this reading, lies partly in his ability to channel dissatisfaction that cuts across conventional political affiliations.
The Vannacci factor. The former general’s appeal also rests heavily on persona.
- Supporters describe him as a “strong man”, “determined” and “with clear ideas.” His military background, direct communication style and distance from traditional political elites are seen as signs of firmness and consistency.
- Identity issues remain central. Ghisleri identifies immigration, security, “delinquency of new generations,” personal defence, the traditional family and control of borders among the themes most frequently mentioned by respondents.
- But she also points to a contradiction: some voters see Vannacci’s lack of government experience not as a liability but as evidence that he remains outside a political system they distrust.
- In other words, what would normally count as political inexperience can become part of the appeal.
Between the lines: The survey also points to dissatisfaction with the broader political offer.
- Some respondents say they no longer distinguish meaningfully between right and left, describing traditional parties as part of the same political world. Ghisleri writes that Vannacci “intercepts this anxiety” with language that is direct and outside traditional mediation.
- His supporters also connect domestic discontent with foreign policy. According to the article, they criticize what they see as European “submission” on the war in Ukraine and an excessive alignment with Atlantic positions.
- Yet Ghisleri stresses that this electorate is not necessarily unified by a coherent alternative political program. Rather, it appears bound together by rejection of the existing system and by the search for a figure perceived as radically different.
Follow the numbers: The Only Numbers survey, dated Aug. 31, 2026, shows just how weak confidence in Italy’s political parties has become.
- Overall trust stands at only 14.2%.
- The chart published breaks that down sharply by voters’ party affiliation: Forza Italia supporters record the highest confidence at 40.4%, followed by Fratelli d’Italia at 26.6%, Lega at 19.4%, Italia Viva and Azione at 15% each, PD at 14.4%, M5S at 13.1%, Futuro Nazionale at 5.7% and AVS at just 2.6%.
- That means distrust is especially pronounced among Vannacci’s own potential supporters: their confidence in political parties is less than half the already-low national figure.
The big picture: For Ghisleri, this is not simply another Italian populist cycle.
- She argues that Vannacci’s potential constituency differs from previous anti-establishment waves associated with Five Star Movement or Giorgia Meloni’s rise. The common denominator is anger at the political order, but the voters attracted to Vannacci are described as particularly disillusioned and distrustful.
The distinction matters for Prime Minister Meloni. Ghisleri notes that the government retains a parliamentary majority, while voters — including some within the centre-right — have become increasingly impatient with the gap between promises and results.
- The risk for established parties is that a protest vote could coalesce around a figure rather than around a fully developed political alternative.
The bottom line: The survey does not establish that Vannacci will turn today’s 7-8% polling into votes.
- But it suggests his opening is real: a constituency defined by low trust, identity concerns and frustration with traditional politics is looking for somewhere to go — and Vannacci is trying to become its destination.
