Decoding the news. US President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to the Gulf—flanked by US business titans—signals a strategic shift that could reshape Washington’s footprint in the Middle East.
- As he revives defence and investment ties with Saudi Arabia and beyond, Rome could find new opportunities—and new challenges—in energy, security, and diplomacy.
- From Riyadh to Abu Dhabi, Trump is laying the groundwork for tighter US cooperation with Gulf monarchies, bypassing Israel and raising questions about America’s shifting priorities in the region.
The strategic layer. While economic deals dominate headlines, analysts say Trump’s Gulf reboot has more profound implications.
- Zineb Riboua of the Hudson Institute points to expected outcomes like a formal US-Saudi defence pact, joint deterrence measures against Iran, and supply chain alliances to challenge China’s presence.
- She also anticipates joint initiatives on Syria’s future, maritime security in the Red Sea, and energy cooperation pivoting from oil to renewables and critical raw materials.
Italy’s angle. Rome has been quietly—but steadily—expanding its role in the Gulf, aligning with Saudi and Emirati leadership on economic and diplomatic initiatives, as Trump’s return to the region could reshape this trajectory, with new opportunities and challenges.
- Salem Alsanbi, a member of the Italy-Saudi Business Council, tells Decode39 that Italy is “a strategic actor in the Greater Middle East,” and any US repositioning under Trump will “significantly affect Italian interests, especially in the energy field.”
- Security dynamics may also shift. A lighter US military footprint could open space for Italy in peacekeeping and EU-oriented missions.
- Alsanbi warns that changes in US intelligence cooperation may require Italy to boost its autonomous capabilities or deepen ties within Europe.
Zoom in: Italian presence. Stellantis chairman John Elkann is part of Trump’s business delegation to Saudi Arabia, highlighting Italy’s indirect stake in US industrial diplomacy.
- Elkann met with Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pointing to possible trilateral ventures.
- At the US-Saudi Business Forum, focused on AI, tech, and energy, the Italian industry is in the room alongside global titans Larry Finck, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman.
What we’re watching. Trump’s transactional and selective diplomacy—especially his balancing act with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—may push Italy to recalibrate its alliances in a fragmented EU environment.
- Rome could emerge as a European leader in shaping a new regional policy, aligning economic priorities with strategic imperatives from Libya to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
