In 2024, China extends its influence across 101 countries, analysed through nine domains – from academia to defence – and divided into exposure, pressure, and alignment.
The global picture: Asia and Africa remain the most permeable regions. Pakistan, Cambodia, and Singapore top the ranking, but the sharpest increases are seen in Central America and the Caribbean (+12.1 points), Sub-Saharan Africa (+8.2), and South America (+7.3).
- The Belt and Road Initiative overlaps with digital investments and military cooperation in these areas.
- In Nigeria, China is the top trading partner.
- In Zimbabwe, digitalisation carries the Huawei brand.
- In Chile, pro-China narratives dominate local media.
Where the Expansion Slows Down. Europe shows a modest increase (+1.4 points) and remains the only continent reducing its economic dependence on China.
- Italy and Romania stand out as emblematic cases: both are more cautious on political and strategic fronts, yet still vulnerable in the cultural and digital spheres.
- Oceania follows a similar pattern, with Australia and New Zealand reviewing academic partnerships and tightening investment controls.
The Cultural and Digital Frontier. The fundamental shift is happening in the cultural sphere. China invests more in soft power than in ports or railways:
- Events and festivals organised by embassies and the diaspora;
- Partnerships with local media;
- Increasingly pervasive digital platforms.
- Today, in 65% of the monitored countries, at least one of the five most-used apps is controlled or partly owned by Chinese companies – up from 45% in 2022.
Focus on Italy. Italy (26.8 points, a comprehensive measure of exposure to Chinese influence, down by −8.3 from 2022 — indicating a decline in Chinese penetration in the country).
- Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative marked a symbolic shift, but vulnerabilities remain. Academia is still permeable, some media amplify pro-China narratives, and law enforcement agencies remain exposed to opaque forms of cooperation.
Who’s Behind the China Index. Doublethink Lab, an independent organisation based in Taipei, produces the report, collaborating with the China in the World (CitW) network and local partners. In Eastern Europe, the Expert Forum in Bucharest supports research that studies the dynamics of Chinese influence in the region.
The Rome Event. On Thursday, October 9, at 3:30 PM, the ISMA Hall of the Italian Senate will host the conference “Chinese Influence in the EU: The Cases of Italy and Eastern Europe”, organised by Senator Giulio Terzi in cooperation with Doublethink Lab, Expert Forum, and the Global Committee for the Rule of Law “Marco Pannella.”
- Stay tuned, as our Jacopo Marzano will cover the Italy-focused insights for Formiche.net and Decode39.
The Outlook: The China Index reveals an adaptive strategy: Beijing retreats where institutions are strong but reshapes its presence through culture, technology, and information.
- For Europe, the challenge is not only economic but also one of standards and collective imagination. As one of the continent’s gateways, Italy remains a key observer in understanding where and how Chinese influence evolves in the 21st century.
