Italians begin the year perceiving the international environment as more dangerous and unpredictable than at any point since the early phase of the war in Ukraine.
A country looking outward — and feeling vulnerable: According to SWG’s January “Radar” survey, concern over the proliferation of wars worldwide reaches 85%, rising compared to late 2023 and confirming a structural level of anxiety rather than a short-term spike
- This unease is not limited to distant conflicts.
- The fear of Europe’s declining weight in global power balances is now shared by four out of five Italians, with a striking +12 percentage-point increase in just over two years.
- The perception is that the European Union is not merely challenged, but strategically sidelined — caught between increasingly assertive great powers and unable to shape outcomes autonomously
- The sense of exposure also extends to Italy itself.
- While still a minority view, the share of Italians who are worried about a war directly involving Italy has risen to 42%, up six points since December 2023 — a non-trivial signal in a country historically reluctant to imagine itself on the frontline of military conflict
The United States: from ally to destabiliser? One of the most politically sensitive findings of the survey concerns the shifting perception of the United States. Asked to identify the countries that represent a “major threat to peace in the world”,, 47% of Italians now point to the U.S., a sharp increase from 33% just two years earlier.
- While Russia remains at the top of the list (56%), the data suggest a qualitative change: Washington is no longer seen only as a protective ally, but increasingly as a source of systemic instability, particularly under the renewed Donald Trump presidency
- This re-evaluation is clearly visible in attitudes toward U.S. actions in Venezuela. Large majorities of Italians judge American moves as “wrong”, especially when they touch on sovereignty and resources:
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- 70% reject U.S. management of Venezuelan oil sales and revenues.
- 63% oppose the use of force to intervene.
- 61% disapprove of bombing infrastructure or military targets.
- Even the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to the U.S. — a scenario framed by Washington as restoring democracy — is considered wrong by a majority (52%), with only 35% in favour.
- The message is not ideological anti-Americanism, but discomfort with unilateralism and regime-change logic, especially when it appears driven by strategic or economic interests.
Greenland and Europe’s red line. The debate around Greenland, reignited by Trump’s renewed rhetoric on annexation, offers another window into Italian public opinion. Here, Italians draw a clearer line. A plurality favours a firm European response:
- 32% want the EU to oppose any change in Greenland’s status.
- 20% go further, saying Europe should be ready to defend Denmark militarily if needed.
- Another 30% opt for a pragmatic middle ground — negotiations that keep Greenland under Danish sovereignty while accommodating an expanded U.S. presence.
- Taken together, the data suggest that Italians expect Europe to assert itself politically and strategically, even if they remain sceptical about its actual capacity to do so.
Society is under strain. less trust, more closure. Beyond geopolitics, the long-term indicators included in the SWG Radar paint a sobering picture of Italy’s social climate. Over the past year, Italians report:
- Growing social isolation and weaker interpersonal ties
- Rising insecurity, both economic and cultural
- More negative views of younger generations, perceived as less prepared and more fragile
- These trends are not episodic. They align with a longer trajectory of declining trust, reduced civic engagement, and a sense of collective fatigue.
- The result is a society that feels more defensive than dynamic, more focused on protecting what it has than investing in shared futures
The economy. On the economic front, the picture is nuanced but far from reassuring. Most Italians expect their household finances to remain broadly stable in 2026. However, SWG’s qualitative reading suggests this “stability” masks fragility rather than confidence. A significant share of respondents anticipates potential deterioration and is already adjusting their behaviour accordingly:
- postponing discretionary spending
- prioritising essential goods and services
- increasing precautionary savings where possible
- Rather than collapse, the dominant mood is retrenchment – a defensive economic posture that risks reinforcing Italy’s low-growth equilibrium, particularly if uncertainty persists on energy prices, trade, or global demand
Political implications. The convergence of geopolitical fear, social pessimism, and economic caution has direct political consequences. An electorate that feels exposed abroad and insecure at home is likely to:
- reward promises of protection over reform
- remain sceptical of international commitments perceived as risky
- show limited tolerance for policies that impose short-term costs
- For Italy’s government – and for European policymakers more broadly – the challenge is not only managing external shocks, but restoring a sense of agency and credibility. Without it, anxiety risks becoming the dominant political currency.
Bottom line. SWG’s January 2026 Radar captures an Italy that is not in crisis, but clearly on edge.
- The country perceives the world as more dangerous, Europe as weaker, society as more fragmented, and the future as something to guard against rather than embrace.
- In this context, confidence — not growth forecasts — may be the scarcest resource of all.
