“Today, for the first time in American history, the Pope matters to the administration and Congress. This is also the government with the most Catholics in U.S. history. It is a new experience for both sides, and Washington has yet to understand how to speak with a Pope who is indeed American but is first and foremost the Pope — not an American — that is, the leader of the world’s largest unitary religion,” said Francesco Sisci, an Italian analyst and commentator on politics and director of the Appia Institute.
What’s happening: As of early 2026, the Vatican is actively mediating between Cuba and the United States amid rising tensions and Cuba’s worsening economic crisis.
- Despite the collapse of a 2025 prisoner‑release deal following the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, Pope Leo XIV is urging dialogue to prevent further suffering.
- These days in Rome, the Cuban foreign minister is seeking a mediation channel through the Holy See.
Yes, but… In the Vatican, despite remaining channels of communication, mediation efforts between Pope Leo and Trump are facing difficulties.
- That is: “If the Holy See does not know or does not share U.S. objectives regarding Cuba, how can it mediate?,” guessed Mr. Sisci.
- “Let’s also remember that Cuba, which is special to the U.S., is special to the Vatican as well.”
Historical links: After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Washington pushed for the end of Castro’s regime, but John Paul II helped shield him diplomatically, and Castro did not fall.
- “It’s difficult now for an American Pope to surpass the results of the man who contributed so forcefully to the fall of the Soviet empire.”
The U.S.-Vatican conundrum: In recent years, at an accelerating pace — due to Covid, the war in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza — the broad consensus around the international political framework that held the world together after World War II has eroded, noted the Italian commentator.
- “During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR shared criteria for confrontation and dialogue. Today, those criteria seem completely gone. America has its own objectives but, so far, has not built a consensus around them — neither with its allies, nor with the world, nor with the Holy See.”
- “In these conditions, the Holy See’s mediation with the United States is different and more difficult. The U.S. will need to rebuild a broad consensus and, within that consensus, find new ways of dialogue,” argued Mr. Sisci.
