The midterm elections in the United States have delivered a result destined to carry weight well beyond American borders. The Democrats’ capture of both chambers of Congress represents a significant setback for Donald Trump and raises questions about the prospects for the second half of his term. But it is above all in Europe that the less immediate and, at the same time, deeper consequences of the vote could emerge.
Between the future of American support for Ukraine, the balance in the Middle East and the resilience of sovereigntist political forces, the American result could help change the international political climate.
For Nathalie Tocci, chair of the Scientific Council of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and a professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, the central issue is less an immediate reversal of American foreign policy than the possible democratic contagion effect on European political dynamics.
Q: The midterm elections have delivered a very broad victory for the Democrats, with the capture of both chambers of Congress. Is this a result that surprised you, or was it a scenario you had already anticipated?
A: It is a historic result and, at the same time, pleasantly unsurprising. Evidently, a certain degree of political clarity and capacity to react still exists in the United States.
Q: At the international level, what consequences can we expect? Could the electoral defeat lead Trump to reconsider his foreign policy stance or, on the contrary, to harden it?
A: Before the elections, I would have bet on an even more Trumpian Trump, with a foreign policy whose characteristics would be further accentuated. And I believe that, as far as Ukraine is concerned, this is precisely the scenario we will see.
Q: So, on the Ukrainian front, do you expect a further rapprochement between Washington, Moscow and Beijing?
A: Yes. I expect a sort of celebration of the understanding between Putin, Xi Jinping and Trump. It is a prospect I consider plausible in light of the positions already expressed by the American administration.
Q: The picture appears more uncertain in the Middle East. Could Trump’s electoral defeat have repercussions for the handling of the conflict with Iran and the relationship with Netanyahu?
A: Here I have greater doubts. Before the vote, we were already on a trajectory of escalation and, had Trump suffered a more limited defeat, I would have expected precisely an acceleration in that direction, with the resumption of the war against Iran.
- But a defeat of this magnitude changes the terms of the issue: it could go in either direction. During the election campaign, opposition to the war within the United States emerged with particular force.
- This is a factor Trump cannot ignore. That said, Netanyahu’s ability to bring Trump around to his positions should never be underestimated. Therefore, at this moment, it is difficult to make firm predictions.
Q: While the foreign policy consequences remain partly unpredictable, for Europe the significance of the American vote could be primarily political. Is this the most relevant dimension?
A: I believe so. For Europe, in fact, the midterm result could have a less direct impact on policy and a much more significant one in the political arena.
- The central issue is the possible contagion effect of the message “democracy is back” on European political dynamics, just as the continent approaches its big election year.
Q: How could this contagion effect translate into practice? And how much could it affect the European political forces that oppose the radical right?
A: These dynamics are difficult to measure because they operate on an intangible level, made up of perceptions, expectations and confidence in the possibility of changing the balance.
- Yet they can carry considerable weight. After what we have seen in Brazil and Serbia, the American elections convey an extremely powerful, albeit intangible, message: yes, it is possible to defeat the far right. This, in my view, is one of the most important political implications of the American vote for Europe.
