Donald Trump’s midterm defeat could push Europe’s right to reconsider its political identity, its international partners and its approach to the European Union, according to Augusto Minzolini, former director of Italian public broadcaster Rai’s Tg1 news programme.
In an interview with our sister website Formiche.net, Minzolini argues that the costs and contradictions of American policy have exposed the limits of a shared sovereignist agenda. For the European right, he sees an opportunity to redefine itself around a more conventional conservative outlook and a renewed commitment to Europe.
The core argument. Asked whether Trump’s defeat was good for the right, Minzolini offered this assessment:
- “It clarifies the phase we are living through. Let me explain: we are in a phase in which, in fact, American policy, especially internationally, has carried considerable weight and has significantly influenced positions within various parties and countries as well.”
- “It has also had considerable economic influence, creating substantial difficulties, especially for those in government: just imagine the energy consequences of the war in Iran. In addition, it has highlighted an element that, especially for one part of the right, the part described as sovereignist, is glaring: the contradiction itself, namely that there is no sovereignist international.”
Why it matters: Minzolini identifies a clash between the national priorities of the United States and the expectations of its ideological allies abroad. Political affinity offers little protection when their interests diverge.
- “If one imagines that the United States comes before everything else, it is clear that the interests of the United States become priorities even at the expense of the interests of other possible allies,” he said.
- He argues that recognising this tension could help the right reassess a political and cultural wave that is losing momentum.
The direction he favours: A stronger conservative identity, accompanied by a rediscovery of European integration.
- “The right can redefine itself through the value of Europeanism,” Minzolini said.
- He sees objective difficulties in transatlantic relations under Trump. The electoral setback, in his reading, could encourage changes in the positions and development of Europe’s right-wing parties.
- “I am thinking of Vannacci in Italy or the AfD in Germany: the sovereignist intoxication, in short, has passed.”
The Meloni test: Minzolini believes Italy’s prime minister has already begun the evolution he advocates. He points to the distance between Giorgia Meloni before entering Palazzo Chigi and her conduct in government.
- His recommendation is to move faster and complete that transition. “Timing in politics, especially in a phase like this, is fundamental, so I believe she should shed certain hesitations and certain cautious attitudes,” he said. “In other words, she should complete the kind of evolution she has begun.”
What to watch: The implications for forthcoming European elections remain fluid. Minzolini cautions that the political environment is changing rapidly and that contests next spring are still distant.
- But he expects the consequences of American decisions to shape the debate, particularly where European governments and voters bear costs despite having had little influence over those decisions.
- “Let us bear in mind that certain actions will count, such as a war that was conducted without the European allies’ knowledge and whose costs are now falling on them,” he said.
Against that backdrop, he raises the possibility that movements with a stronger sovereignist identity, including Germany’s AfD and General (Ret.) Roberto Vannacci’s far-right political current in Italy, could suffer from the changing climate.
- His assessment leaves room for uncertainty about individual elections while identifying a broader pressure on parties associated with that outlook.
Europe’s strategic role: Minzolini’s argument extends beyond the future of the right. He sees European unity as essential to retaining influence in the emerging international order.
- “I say this very frankly: I have had many doubts about Europe in the past, but by now it is no longer a matter of choice,” he said. “Europe has become a necessary path if one intends to maintain an important role in the new world order. There is only one way to avoid being marginalised, that of the European Union.”
- Whether the EU is capable of meeting that challenge remains an open question in his assessment. He argues that the political battle to strengthen it must take place within its institutions.
His prescription: Minzolini wants Meloni to accelerate on two fronts: overcoming the veto and developing the prospect of a European army.
- He describes the veto as something that “remains madness” and connects a future European military capability to greater diplomatic strength.
- For Europe’s right, his proposed response to the American vote therefore reaches into the EU’s central debates: how it makes decisions, how it provides security and how its members can preserve international influence together.
