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Italian elections: the (rough) results are in

Italian elections: the (rough) results are in
As expected, the centre-right coalition is slated to win a wide majority in the Italian Parliament – with the more hard-line components outperforming the more moderate forces. Affluence was low at around 65%. Read expert comments by Professors Celotto and Pasquino

Centre-right parties hit a home run. As the latest projections have it, the right-wing coalition garnered a comfortable majority of seats in the Italian Parliament. The centre-left electoral alliance came in second, followed by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and smaller parties.

Here are the numbers.

  • Centre-right coalition: 43.3%
  • Centre-left coalition: 25.4%
  • Five Star Movement: 17%
  • Third Pole: 7.9%
  • Others: 6.4%

Turning numbers into seats. The current – and rather baroque – electoral system means those percentages won’t translate into shares of Parliament. Here’s how many seats each party is projected to win. FYI: after the 2020 reform, the Lower House has 400 seats, while the Senate has 200.

  • Centre-right coalition: 236 + 117 (total: 353/600)
  • Centre-left coalition: 88 + 43 (total: 131/600).

Crucially, it looks like the centre-right won’t have enough seats for a two-thirds majority, which would be enough to change the Constitution.

Low affluence. The provisional turnout figure was below 65% – the lowest turnout ever, and a pale figure when compared to 2018’s 74.3%. Alfonso Celotto, professor of constitutional law, offered his hot take as the results showed up. “One Italian out of three did not vote. That seems to me a pretty telling figure, considering that turnout was at 90% until 1994.”

  • “So many were undecided, so many unsure, so many indifferent,” noted Mr Celotto. “An abstention born not only from the weather but also from anger, indifference and disaffection.”

Leaning Orbanian. Gianfranco Pasquino, professor emeritus of political science, told Decode39 that the new power balance within the centre-right coalition would likely favour the more hard-line forces – namely, Brothers of Italy – at the expense of the more moderate Forza Italia.

  • “The League, which performed worse than expected, is a loose cannon: in order to stand out, it will be vocal, and this will be a problem for the [coalition’s] unity.”
  • The most immediate consequence will be BoI’s European positioning, noted Mr Pasquino. “If Giorgia Meloni plays the sovereignist and goes toe to toe with the EU, it will be a problem for Italy – and not a small one.

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