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Italy’s economic resurgence: a prime opportunity for G7 presidency in 2024

According to economist Marco Fortis, it is not understood why Italy should not have a rating at least on par with that of France. Here are the latest data on the Italian economy

According to economist Marco Fortis, the 2024 G7 presidency will provide a “unique opportunity” for Italy to present “the structural progress made by our economy in recent years, particularly after the pandemic, as a result of reforms initiated in the previous five years.”

  • Considering recent data on the Italian economy, “it is not understood why” Italy “should not have a rating at least on par with that of France”, Fortis wrote in the newspaper Il Foglio.

Based on the final data for 2022 and using the 2023 projections from the latest OECD Economic Outlook, Italy is expected to achieve the strongest economic growth among G7 countries in the 2022-2023 period, with a 5% increase in GDP over two years.

  • By the end of 2023, the Italian economy will already be 2.2% above pre-crisis levels of 2019 in real terms. France will only be at 1.5%, while Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom will barely reach the same levels as four years ago.
  • Among the G7 countries, only the United States and Canada, which did not implement lockdowns comparable to those in Europe in 2020, will have a higher cumulative growth over the four-year period than Italy.

Italy’s strong development in the 2022-2023 period has been driven by investments in machinery and plants and the export of goods and services.

  • In both cases, our country will record the strongest progress among the G7 economies over a two-year period, with growth rates of 12.7% and 12%, respectively.

Furthermore, during the G7 in 2024, the Italian government will be able to showcase the sustainability of the Italian economic model.

  • This is demonstrated by the United Nations Human Development Index, adjusted for planetary pressures. Considering per capita CO2 emissions and per capita consumption of natural resources, Italy ranks third globally and second in the G7, behind the United Kingdom.

Regarding public finances, according to the Fiscal Monitor of the International Monetary Fund, apart from Germany, all other G7 countries will have a public debt exceeding 100% of GDP in 2023.

  • However, Italy’s debt has grown the least in the 2014-2023 decade in terms of percentage points of GDP due to seven years of primary public surplus out of ten, and in 2023, Italy will be the only G7 country with a primary surplus.
  • The Bank for International Settlements also states that Italy has the lowest household and corporate debt among G7 countries, and its aggregate debt is the second lowest after Germany.

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