Federico Borsari (CEPA) argues that Leonardo can still close Europe’s drone capability gap by combining Baykar’s industrial expertise with Ukraine’s battlefield know-how, provided it moves quickly in electronic warfare, counter-drone technologies and industrial partnerships.
The big picture: At this year’s Farnborough International Airshow, unmanned systems have eclipsed even sixth-generation fighter programs, underscoring how drones are reshaping modern warfare from Ukraine to the Gulf.
The trend: As military and commercial investment in autonomous technologies accelerates, European defense companies are racing to catch up after years of lagging behind U.S., Israeli and, more recently, Turkish capabilities.
Why it matters: Leonardo is pursuing a two-track strategy: a new joint venture with Turkey’s Baykar to develop advanced unmanned aircraft, while also exploring cooperation with Ukraine, now widely regarded as the world’s leading laboratory for drone warfare.
- Airpress spoke with Federico Borsari, non-resident fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), about whether these efforts reinforce—or compete with—each other.
Q: At Farnborough, drones seem to have become the real stars of the show, whereas for years the spotlight was on crewed aircraft. Is that an accurate impression?
A: Absolutely. Trade shows have always reflected where the market is heading because they reveal where industry is concentrating its research, development and technological innovation. Looking across recent defense exhibitions—including land-focused events such as Eurosatory, where robotic systems and drones were among the standout technologies—the direction is unmistakable: unmanned systems are becoming increasingly central.
Q: What is driving this trend, beyond purely military factors?
A: Defense is only part of the story. Civilian industries have invested in autonomous technologies for decades, from automotive and logistics to industrial inspections and agriculture. Drones are inherently dual-use technologies, making them attractive to both commercial and military users.
- The technology itself is not new: unmanned systems date back to the end of World War II and evolved throughout the Cold War.
- What has changed is their strategic relevance, as they now offer better cost-effectiveness and can perform missions more efficiently while reducing risks to personnel.
- As a result, drones have become a foundational defense technology, and Borsari expects the market’s sustained growth to continue.
Q: A year ago Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger warned of a possible “drone bubble.” Do you agree?
A: It depends on which segment you’re looking at. Small and medium-sized drones, particularly FPV systems, enjoyed a major battlefield advantage in Ukraine because neither side initially had effective countermeasures. That advantage is now shrinking as countries invest in anti-drone capabilities.
Q: So is there a drone bubble after all?
A: In certain niches, perhaps. FPV drones could experience something resembling a market correction, but that should not be confused with a broader collapse of unmanned technologies.
- The unmanned sector extends far beyond small drones.
- Investment continues to grow in stealth platforms, naval and ground unmanned systems, and collaborative combat aircraft, or loyal wingmen.
- The United States, China, several European countries, Turkey and even Iran are expanding investment in these capabilities, making a sector-wide bubble unlikely.
Q: Leonardo and Baykar officially launched their joint venture at Farnborough. How do you assess the partnership?
A: Leonardo recognized several years ago that drones would become a critical technology. While the company already had systems such as the early Falco platform, these were largely designed for tactical surveillance and reflected a more traditional approach. Like much of Europe, Italy fell behind in the development of advanced drone capabilities despite using unmanned systems in counterterrorism and low-intensity conflicts.
- The United States and Israel invested earlier and more aggressively, building mature industrial ecosystems around platforms such as the Predator and Israeli UAV families.
- Europe entered the late 2000s with limited industrial capacity and relatively immature technologies.
- Closing that gap independently would require enormous investments in research, development and manufacturing.
- The Baykar partnership addresses this by combining complementary industrial strengths.
Q: Where does that complementarity lie?
A: Leonardo brings deep expertise in electronics, sensors and radar systems, while Baykar contributes advanced airframe design, payload integration and years of operational experience accumulated in Syria.
- Operational experience has generated vast amounts of data that can support further research and development.
- Sharing R&D costs makes the partnership economically attractive.
- Baykar gains easier access to the European defense ecosystem, including EU funding opportunities.
- Leonardo, meanwhile, strengthens its position in Africa and the Middle East, where Baykar already has a well-established customer base.
Q: Leonardo CEO Lorenzo Mariani has also expressed interest in partnering with Ukraine on drones. Isn’t there a risk that the two strategies could conflict?
A: On the contrary, I see them as complementary. The Baykar partnership focuses on larger operational and strategic platforms, such as an Italian version of the TB3 for carrier operations and potentially the Kizilelma. Cooperation with Ukraine appears aimed at different parts of the value chain.
- Ukraine offers expertise in drone command-and-control systems.
- It also has significant experience with small drones that can be integrated as payloads on larger interceptor platforms.
- Those capabilities are increasingly important for counter-drone missions launched from land, naval vessels or even modified civilian aircraft acting as motherships.
Q: What makes Ukraine’s experience so valuable?
A: Operational experience. In my view, Ukraine now has the world’s deepest and most sophisticated expertise in drone warfare, even surpassing Russia in its ability to innovate and adapt.
- Years of combat have generated an unparalleled volume of operational data that is invaluable for research and development.
- This is particularly important for electronic warfare, where Leonardo already possesses strong capabilities and Ukrainian data on Russian drone frequencies could prove especially valuable.
- Ukraine has also built remarkable industrial resilience through extensive use of additive manufacturing, 3D printing and decentralized production facilities capable of operating continuously despite missile attacks.
- Rather than manufacturing small drones itself, Leonardo could integrate Ukrainian systems across its airborne and ground platforms.
- Ukraine’s expertise in both soft-kill and hard-kill counter-drone technologies also represents a significant opportunity.
Q: Rheinmetall has been working closely with Ukraine’s defense industry since 2023. Has Leonardo arrived too late?
A: There is certainly a risk, and to some extent that opportunity has already been missed. The value of partnering directly with Ukraine has been clear for some time, yet Italy generally adopted a cautious and reactive approach.
- Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the Baltic states, Sweden, Norway and Finland all moved earlier to establish industrial partnerships.
- Geographic proximity to Russia explains part of that urgency, but not all of it.
- Denmark, for example, acted much more proactively despite facing a less immediate Russian threat than the Baltic countries.
Q: Is there still room to catch up?
A: Yes. Significant opportunities remain, and Leonardo could become one of the main gateways through which Ukrainian defense companies enter the European market.
- Ukrainian companies are actively seeking partnerships with European industry.
- The “Build with Ukraine” initiative, launched in 2025 and formalized around Eurosatory, has already produced dozens of co-development and co-production agreements.
- Some projects are already underway, including a solid-fuel missile factory in Denmark and Ukrainian drone production in the United Kingdom for both Kyiv and the British armed forces.
- Many of these arrangements split production between Ukraine, where systems support the war effort, and European markets.
- While Italy has undoubtedly lost time, Leonardo still has an opportunity to build a strong position by focusing on electronic warfare, counter-drone technologies and the battlefield data generated by Ukraine’s experience.
