The 2026 Annual Report of Italian Intelligence outlines an analytical assessment of China as a leading actor in global geopolitical and technological competition. Beijing is described as a strategic player capable of long-term planning and increasingly reliant on hybrid instruments to expand its influence. Below is a synthesis of the main areas of concern highlighted in the report.
Hybrid Threats and Influence Strategies. Italian intelligence identifies China as one of the principal actors behind hybrid threats targeting democratic societies.
- Whole-of-Government Approach: Beijing deploys economic, diplomatic, and informational tools in an integrated manner, all under the direction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to expand its influence and conduct industrial espionage.
- European Dynamics: Toward the European Union, China pursues a dual-track approach. On the one hand, it maintains diplomatic dialogue to avoid an excessive alignment between the EU and the United States.
- On the other hand, it seeks to intensify bilateral relations with individual member states to exploit and amplify internal divergences within the Union.
- Information Manipulation: China’s strategy in the information sphere aims to promote positive narratives about the country while suppressing critical voices.
- This effort leverages national media outlets, think tanks, and social media platforms. Recently, analysts have also detected targeted critical narratives aimed specifically at NATO and the United States.
Technological Sovereignty and Cybersecurity. China is viewed as a systemic challenger in the race for dominance in emerging technologies.
- Cyber Espionage: For the first time, Italian intelligence publicly attributed a global cyber espionage campaign to China, carried out by the group known as “Salt Typhoon.”
- Technological Leadership: Beijing holds strong positions in several critical sectors:
- Semiconductors: China’s share of global manufacturing capacity is expected to rise to 30% by 2030.
- Quantum Technologies: China leads the sector in patent filings, with 7,308 patents in 2024, projected to reach 14,267 by 2030.
- Artificial Intelligence: Unlike the United States—where innovation is largely private-sector driven—China’s AI development is heavily supported by state investment, which reached $22.5 billion in public funding in 2024.
Economic Warfare and Critical Raw Materials. China increasingly transforms economic interdependence into a strategic instrument of pressure.
- Rare Earths: Beijing controls more than 90% of the global rare-earth supply chain, materials essential for both defence production (such as components used in the F-35 fighter jet) and the energy transition. The intelligence report highlights the use of export restrictions as a geopolitical lever.
- Greenfield Investments: A shift in China’s investment strategy in Europe is also emerging. Instead of focusing primarily on acquiring existing companies, Chinese firms are increasingly building new industrial facilities (greenfield investments) — particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors—partly to circumvent trade tariffs.
Indo-Pacific Theatre and Maritime Security. Italian intelligence is closely monitoring regional tensions involving China.
- South China Sea: In 2026, the greatest risks to Asian security are expected to concentrate in this area, where incidents between the Chinese navy and regional actors—such as the Philippines—remain a possibility.
- The Taiwan Question: Although a military escalation is considered unlikely before 2027, Beijing continues to promote the goal of “peaceful reunification,” while closely monitoring Taiwan’s internal political dynamics ahead of the 2028 elections.
- Undersea Domain: China is rapidly expanding its underwater industrial and prototyping capabilities, including shipyards, deepwater ports, and seabed mining projects. However, it still controls only 5–10% of global undersea cable capacity.
