Decoding the news. A new attempt to overthrow Niger’s military junta has once again exposed the fragility of the country and the divisions within its armed forces.
At the same time, the episode offered another indication of how the external balance of power has shifted since the 2023 coup. When the authorities in Niamey came under pressure, they turned to Russia for support, while Italian forces remained outside the confrontation.
Why it matters. Italy has chosen to stay in Niger after other major Western military partners withdrew, preserving a direct channel with the authorities and a presence in a region considered important for counterterrorism and migration. But growing Russian leverage and the persistence of jihadist violence are raising questions over the strategic returns of that choice.
- Decode39 spoke with Fabrizio Coticchia, Professor of Political Science at the University of Genoa, about Niger’s latest instability, Russia’s expanding role, the limits of Western security assistance and whether Italy should reconsider its military presence in the country.
Q: Let’s start with what happened in Niamey. What do we know about the latest attempt to overthrow Abdourahamane Tiani’s junta, and how serious was it?
A: The information available remains relatively limited. It appears to have been another attempt by part of the armed forces to overthrow the government, following the coup that brought the current authorities to power.
- The episode lasted several hours and may also reflect dissatisfaction with the results of the coup, particularly on security. The promised improvement has not materialised, while internal struggles within the military establishment remain important.
- What is particularly significant is what happened when the junta came under pressure. The government turned to the Russians, who appear to have intervened and helped bring the situation back under control. There are also reports of Algerian support through its air force.
- Italian forces, by contrast, were not involved and, as far as we know, essentially remained spectators.
Q: What does the episode tell us about the stability of the regime and the divisions within Niger’s armed forces? How important is the continuing deterioration of the security situation?
A: The central issue is Niger’s instability. Another coup attempt reveals persistent tensions within the armed forces, and it comes while jihadist attacks continue.
- One source of dissatisfaction appears to be precisely the failure to improve security conditions after the military takeover.
- Then there is Russia’s growing presence. When the authorities face difficulties, they increasingly look to Moscow. That is particularly significant because the other Western military forces have left Niger, with Italy being the major exception.
- The result is a combination of internal instability, a persistent jihadist threat and growing Russian influence.
Q: What exactly is Italy doing in Niger today? And why has Rome remained when the other main Western partners have withdrawn?
A: Italy approved the mission at the end of 2017 and deployed it in 2018. Initially, it encountered significant difficulties in expanding its activities beyond the airport in Niamey, partly because of French opposition.
- Today, according to the latest available parliamentary report, the mission involves around 500 personnel, together with ground assets and some aircraft, particularly UAVs used for monitoring and intelligence gathering.
- Its fundamental purpose is to support Niger in dealing with two threats considered particularly important for Italy: terrorism and, above all, irregular migration.
- The Italians conduct mentoring and training activities rather than taking part directly in combat operations. Over the years, several local units have been trained, medical activities have been carried out and Italy has established its own base.
Q: So essentially this is about training local forces?
A: Exactly. It is what we call security force assistance: rather than fighting directly, you support and train local actors so that they can provide security themselves.
- The problem is that this approach has produced largely disappointing results. Niger is a particularly revealing case, but the wider Sahel also illustrates the failure of years of Western military involvement aimed at strengthening local security capabilities.
- The issue is not the quality of Italian training. Training is one of the strengths of the Italian armed forces. The problem lies in the broader political environment, including governance and the legitimacy of the authorities with whom we cooperate. In Niger, after all, we are dealing with a government that came to power through a coup.
Q: Italy’s presence has also become a political issue at home. What is the government’s rationale for maintaining the mission?
A: The government’s position is that remaining in Niger allows Italy to preserve a channel of communication with local actors and to follow developments in the country directly, particularly when it comes to irregular migration.
- It also reflects the Italian defence establishment’s growing attention to bilateral missions that are more explicitly connected to national interests.
- From this perspective, the purpose of staying is to maintain a degree of influence over developments in Niger.
- There is a logic to that argument: leaving also means accepting that the space vacated by Italy could be occupied by other actors. But the crucial question is whether remaining actually provides the influence we are seeking.
- When the junta finds itself in serious difficulty, it turns to Russia. We have seen comparable dynamics elsewhere, with local governments relying on other external partners when they need concrete security assistance.
Q: Given the latest instability and Russia’s growing role, does it still make strategic sense for Italy to remain in Niger?
A: There are two dimensions to consider.
- From the standpoint of democratic principles and foreign policy values, supporting a government that came to power through a coup is obviously difficult to justify.
- But even through a purely strategic lens, the assessment does not become much more positive.
- Armed forces are instruments used to achieve political objectives. In Niger, Italy essentially has two objectives: strengthening its political influence in the region and helping improve the country’s ability to provide for its own security.
- If we look at the results, both objectives appear increasingly distant.
- When the junta is in difficulty, it turns to Russia. At the same time, security conditions continue to deteriorate.
- For that reason, I do not see sufficient justification for continuing to maintain the mission in its current form. If our presence is neither increasing Italian influence nor contributing to an improvement in security, then it should be reconsidered.
- More broadly, we already know that attempts to strengthen the security capabilities of governments that lack solid legitimacy have repeatedly failed. We have seen this dynamic in Iraq, Afghanistan and across the Sahel, and it is also clearly reflected in the academic research on security assistance.
