“I think it is necessary to suspend the ban that will take effect on January 1, 2027 on the 20 billion cubic meters of LNG coming from Russia.”
A statement at odds with the moment. The words of Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, spoken at a League political school, come at a particularly delicate moment.
- They point to a structural concern within Italy’s industrial system, resurfacing as global energy markets enter a new phase of instability driven by tensions involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- The intervention, however, runs counter to the broader international trajectory.
Renewed pressure on Moscow. The United States has allowed a sanctions waiver on Russian oil to expire, restoring pressure on Moscow’s energy revenues. The objective remains unchanged: to constrain the Kremlin’s capacity to finance its war in Ukraine through hydrocarbon exports.
- Yet this strategy is unfolding against a tightening global market. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted flows and reduced part of Qatar’s export capacity, exposing Europe to renewed supply risks. The result is a familiar tension between strategic pressure on Russia and the need to stabilise energy markets.
From dependence to exposure. Italy’s position reflects this shift.
- In recent years, Rome has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas, turning to pipeline supplies from Algeria and expanding LNG imports, particularly from the United States and Qatar.
- The policy has achieved diversification, but not insulation.
- Reliance on maritime routes and external suppliers has introduced a different set of vulnerabilities, tied to chokepoints and geopolitical shocks rather than bilateral dependence.
The cost of reversal. Descalzi’s argument speaks to these constraints. But reopening the Russian option would carry broader implications.
- Reversing course after years of diversification would signal a lack of strategic resilience. It would also reinforce Moscow’s perception that Europe remains structurally dependent, despite political efforts to the contrary.
- Such a shift would not be confined to energy policy. It would reverberate across the wider geopolitical confrontation, shaping Russia’s assessment of western cohesion and leverage.
Divisions in Rome. The issue has quickly exposed political differences within Italy.
- Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has endorsed Descalzi’s position, framing it as a pragmatic response to economic realities and arguing that Italy cannot afford to ignore the needs of industry and households.
- Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has taken a more cautious line.
- She has emphasised that economic pressure on Russia remains one of the few effective tools available to influence the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, underscoring Italy’s alignment with its western partners.
- For now, Descalzi’s position appears to have limited support within the government.
Signals from Moscow. The reaction from Russia has added further complexity.
- Kirill Dmitriev, a close adviser to President Vladimir Putin, suggested it may already be “too late” to reopen energy channels with Italy. The remark reframes the debate, implying that Europe’s earlier decisions have narrowed its room for manoeuvre.
A misstep in timing. Descalzi’s intervention was “ill-judged,” not so much for its technical content as for the context, notes Nathalie Tocci, currently a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna and, among other roles, a former member of Eni’s board of directors.
- “Regardless of the technical content, the place where it was said (the League’s political school), the moment in which it was said (with Ukraine talks stalled) and the political context in which it was said (in which Italy is trying to show it stands with Ukraine, but in fact has taken a much more low-profile role since the Trump administration returned), made it a very poorly timed intervention,” Tocci told Decode39.
A broader strategic test. What is at stake goes beyond Italy.
- The renewed debate highlights a wider European dilemma: how to sustain pressure on Russia while managing the economic and security consequences of a more volatile energy environment.
- The question is no longer whether diversification is possible, but whether it is sufficient to withstand prolonged geopolitical strain.
- “Italy intends to continue to play its part in reaching shared solutions that safeguard Kyiv’s sovereignty and ensure the solidity of the Euro-Atlantic alliance, because a divided West, a fractured Europe would be the only real gift we could offer Moscow,” PM Meloni said today in joint statements with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
