The results are in. The newest snapshot report by SWG, a leading Italian pollster, gauged the Italians’ reaction to the fall of Mario Draghi’s government. TLDR: generally speaking, they aren’t too pleased.
- 51% believe ending the tenure of this government was wrong and avoidable;
- 19% think it was wrong but unavoidable. Another 19% feel it was the right call.
- Overall, 61% had negative feelings about early elections, while 21% felt positive about them.
The culprits suffered blowback… In a week, the political forces that played a significant role in causing the end of PM Draghi’s government suffered losses.
- Matteo Salvini’s League plunged at 12.4% (-1,6%).
- Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement slipped just above 10% (-1,1%)
- Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia now stands at 7.1% (-0.3%).
…while the “steady” garnered voters. In turn, the parties that supported him until the end – and the one major opposition party – gained a slight edge.
- Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy consolidated its lead, rising at 25% (+1.2%).
- Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party also rose to 23.2% (+1.1%).
- The alliance between Azione and +Europa came in sixth at 6% (+1.1%). Other minor parties also gained a few decimal points from the political shift.
The Russian connection? Commentators quickly noticed that the government’s fall came at the hands of the three parties closest to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Then they argued about the weakening of the Western front. But others don’t believe it will suffer a notable shift – as Ian Bremmer told Decode39.
- Chances are that Ms Meloni and her party, who have always sided with the Ukrainian resistance, will lead the rightwing coalition – and Italy’s next government. Over the weekend, she sought to reinforce that position, stating that her support for the Western front against Russia would remain unchanged.
The Russia-shaped boomerang. In fact, as geopolitical expert Francesco Sisci wrote on our sister site, the electoral gamble of the Five Star Movement, the League, and Forza Italia will likely backfire.
- The three parties have been losing consensus for months, especially the first two. And it’s highly unlikely the most recent developments will reverse that trend.
- Collectively, they garnered 60% of MPs in the last elections. According to the most recent polling, they’re now slated to gain between 20 and 30% of seats in Parliament.